Budget and Gross Domestic Product

Gold, money, credit, and numbers.

National Accounts; Capital Accounts, Current Accounts, Payable, and Receivable.

Budget of The Dollar Empire. The White House and Congressional Budget Office publish public data for yearly budgets. In order to understand the trajectory I have reverse engineered their numbers. I am not an engineer.

  • I do not know the Gross Domestic Product calculation that this country uses. It is unknown to me. My numbers don't exactly match the published figures. However, Gross Domestic Product is not the same as this country's budget.
  • Below is the summation of categories which add up to the published numbers. Then they are projected into the future and averaged into decade values for clarity.
  • If I was building the budget I would prefer to sum discrete decisions rather than keep ratios within previous bounds. Then the method could incorporate known future changes. A comparison of both methods could still be made.

    Current Summary

    Line in Billions20202030204020502060
    Discretionary16562047271335254370
    Mandatory383949686556851310555
    Income1217715373203922649632852
    Exports367649866597856910625
    Imports29264017530968958549
    Ex-Im750969128816742076
    Investment406253357064917611377
    Savings19592707355446115717
    I-S21032628351045655660
    Added Debt & Other14121664216228003471
    Interest-370-610-793-1027-1273
    Gross Domestic Product2156827041358304654857712
    Population337657171354817481372774077391543183407141706
    GDP Per Capita (Level)638757621196117118883141749
    GDP Growth0.2530.3240.2990.239
    Per Capita GDP Growth0.1930.2610.2360.192

    The forecast period ends with near $80 Trillion in debt at an interest rate of 1.69% which gives a calculated yearly payment of $1.352 Trillion. Compared to the forecast value of $1.273 Trillion yearly interest payment there is only a 6% discrepency between two methods of forecasting. The Budget forecasted for the 2060s is near $15 Trillion while the nation is forecasted to have a $57 Trillion Gross Domestic product.

    Historically, there are distinct differences between the variations of a group of significant series. Their distribution of yearly changes vary extremely differently each having a different mean. Population is the only series on the right vertical scale.

    Volatility and Uncertainty in public policy implementation and geopolitical architecture often causes gold markets to change their price values higher. These higher price changes are associated with higher price changes in many other markets. The relationship between gold being priced higher with circulating currency, Gross Domestic Product, and Per Capita Gross Domestic Product moving in the same direction is a feedback loop. More population requires more circulating currency which increases the sum of Gross Domestic Product. Where the equilibrium lays in these relationships defines stability in dynamic systems. Everything is in a steady state until it is not. Everything works until it doesn't.

    Conclusion

    When a nation can manipulate the value of itself, its money and its people's time and energy then policies contra large disruptions to natural development can be executed with excess debt, stimulus spending, and lowered interest rates to reduce the cost of borrowing for finance maintainence, income support, and public projects.

    Technically, an economic forecast 40 years into the future has limited function.

    Practically, an economic forecast 40 years into the future has limited value.

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