International Trade and Oil

When you do not have a resource it must come from elsewhere.

Everything else can be made.

Transport and Storage. A major concern for a nation or a people is access to supply of goods and resource. The richness of the United States often obscures the presence made around the world to acquire resource. It is my understanding that substitute resources would be good enough to build goods and services. However, basic infrastructure, whether used malevolently or benevolently is a major trade negotiation factor. The escalation of any diplomatic mission to conflict which would disrupt supply of foreign-only resources seems unlikely. A low probability event which could be disproportionately influential. The world is at its own borders.

Historical Summary


Statistics and percents are not the most valuable information. While Imports and Exports averaged annual 5.8% growth between the years 1988 through 2020 their growth during the entire period was 470%.

When products need to move often the fuel of movement is an oil derived product itself. When services move, they are less likely to need physical transport. At current oil industry costs, I would draw a line from $32 at 69 million Barrels daily oil consumption to $100 at 107 million Barrels daily oil consumption. When reserves of low cost oil have been depleted then there will be a different relationship between the price of gasoline and diesel at the pumping stations and the electricity that many services depend on.


The world has developed methods of lower oil consumption without reducing trade.

Increased development and consumption in lower income nations would offset efficiency gains in rich and developed nations.

Polution and Environmental change are directly caused by consumption. Other non-human causes also exist.

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