Lives need wealth and money to survive, transact infrastructure, discover utility, consume, and sometimes find frivolity.
Numbers and People who don't exist. Despite the politicization of what can be a very deterministic implementation of finance, GDP and Per Capita GDP still receive some of the greatest words every spoken. When a national account is being managed there is a world apart from the daily lives of people. Some wealthy owners will attempt to buy their piece of the decisions and proceeds. Some corporate societies will lobby their personal market share of domestic and foreign trade. Some liberated poverty stricken demographics will revolt to earn a guarantee. All three work, win, and lose with promise. To bring an understanding of the limitations of analysis and forecast one must know the difference between law, truth, and numbers. What I have here is the aggregate of human laws, not truth, represented as numbers.
Decade | Rows | PerCapitaGDP | CensusIncome | Savings | Federal.Tax.Receipts | DebtDiff | ImExBalance | ModelPerCapitaGDP | ModelGrowth |
1920 | 1 | 857.8742677 | |||||||
1930 | 10 | 618.18040837 | 2.35355627166667 | ||||||
1940 | 10 | 1475.45298302 | 95.0067063833333 | 243.825799733333 | 17.877371454 | ||||
1950 | 10 | 2513.1599139 | 185.80019876 | 366.91905017 | 7.271430569 | ||||
1960 | 10 | 3821.9453755 | 2734 | 296.07343676 | 508.12751426 | 45.1672296366667 | 21.43159229 | 3897.51912678273 | |
1970 | 10 | 7896.0959215 | 4844.6 | 666.21007329 | 928.85426465 | 185.795629628 | -23.0671343 | 7759.71901679932 | 0.990938020926328 |
1980 | 10 | 17486.344787 | 10731.8 | 1214.36145124 | 1879.8352696 | 783.58105817 | -327.1819401 | 17984.7684306689 | 1.31770872008806 |
1990 | 10 | 28482.4316289999 | 17214.6 | 1483.749434 | 3139.8010029 | 886.58422755 | -373.3419045 | 28364.750801584 | 0.577154074067164 |
2000 | 10 | 42597.407638 | 24681 | 1493.9966074 | 4367.1351037 | 1781.99879059 | -1899.9982103 | 42600.7308043976 | 0.50188983158698 |
2010 | 10 | 56103.135991 | 31717.9 | 3128.7160081 | 5674.8374201 | 3030.919993 | -1712.7365332 | 55974.3514459882 | 0.313929371376184 |
2020 | 2 | 63408.77219 | 40761.1190960658 | 8624.591219 | 6202.11731 | 8909.203003 | -1953.208599 | 79241.7100845868 | 0.415678932181112 |
There is uncertainty regarding nominal growth due to population changes.
Consideration of interest rates must be made due to debt finance burdens and opportunity for dollar demand and dollar denominated trade to change. Politics, corruption, and ultimately fraud can also effect the contribution of technological progress to real growth.